Ahh, nice way to reverse engineer. I see what you're doing. I grabbed two videos of mine (one with zero kids views, and one with majority kids app views) and my confusion has greatly increased. There seems to be no rhyme or reason.
Video 1 (lots of YT Kids views)
151,000 total views
kids app: 112,000
yt app: 40,000
Estimated monetized playbacks? 46k. A whopping 31% total views, incredibly low. So that would lead credence to the fact that YT Kids has almost no adds. But I made $215 total on this video.
Video 2 (ZERO YT Kids views)
25,000 total views
kids app: 0
yt app: 25,000
Estimated monetized playbacks? 22k, around 90%. That's a percentage you'd expect. Almost all monetized views. BUT this video only made $57.
Why the huge discrepancy between 40,000 youtube app views and 25,000 youtube app views? $215 vs $57? Completely taking YT kids out of the equation, apples to apples.
Budgeting for the future has been exceedingly difficult. We don't seem to be the norm. We don't have 99% personalized. We still get tons of contextual. Which is unusual. And we have 2/3rds of all our traffic going to the kids app. Which could be argued as a sneak peak of what's to come for us, if YT Kids has never been shown personalized (has it?).