LOCKED - What would cause such a drastic Drop in Estimated Revenue?

[Kenyanese]

I uploaded a video on 29th of November late in the evening. Turned out to be one of my most profitable. It raked over $600 for the few hours left of November plus some 77K views.

Enter Dec and the video went viral reaching 440K+ views in the first few days. Minutes as well went up. Estimated revenue shot by over four fold and since then, it peaked at $2790. In the first few days of the New Year my estimated revenue from Dec was a constant $3205.

But I woke up today and found the income drastically slashed to a mere $609 with the viral video income dropping from over $2790 to just $190.

Here are the video parameters for Nov and Dec for comparison;

Watch time(Minutes)
Nov

Dec

Views
Nov

Dec

Estimated Revenue
Nov

Dec

Breakdown of the video revenue
Dec

Nov

I must say the original estimate income of $2790 seemed reasonable given about everything (views,minutes...) shot by about 3.8 Times from Nov to Dec.

Question is,
What happened to my estimated ad revenue for Dec which has been well over $2500 for a better part of December and as late as yesterday?

Is it possible to have zero ad revenue with YouTube Red revenue of $190?






PS
This was no monkey business, just clean natural views

 

[Scootakip [Lana]]

My estimated revenue has been slashed too, but I barely had any in the first place, so it doesnt make a major difference.
As far as I know (or remember, really), it's just patterns in monthly earnings. December is the height of revenue earnings, but once the new year starts, that all drops.
Happened last year as well. It'll probably start to slowly build up over the course of the year again.

 

[Kenyanese]

My estimated revenue has been slashed too, but I barely had any in the first place, so it doesnt make a major difference.
As far as I know (or remember, really), it's just patterns in monthly earnings. December is the height of revenue earnings, but once the new year starts, that all drops.
Happened last year as well. It'll probably start to slowly build up over the course of the year again.

Thanks for your response

Actually this video went viral the first few days of December and its estimated revenue has been relatively static over the month and even after New Year till a few hours ago. That’s what I can’t understand.

Everything else about the video(views,minutes....) remains just the ad revenues

 

[The NotARubicon!]

The estimated revenue is estimated until Youtube checks it for invalid traffic, invalid clicks and invalid [insert guess here].. So when it drops that usually means that Youtube decided it didn't like something about it.
Hope you hadn't spent that money yet!

 

[Kenyanese]

The estimated revenue is estimated until Youtube checks it for invalid traffic, invalid clicks and invalid [insert guess here].. So when it drops that usually means that Youtube decided it didn't like something about it.
Hope you hadn't spent that money yet!

I never paid for clicks. What’s interesting is the video attracted 77K views in the last 30 hours of November and some 367K in the first five days of December. November pay was quite close to the estimate.

My video has zero Estimated Monetized Playbacks for December compared to over 80K in November

C

 

[Jiri82pi]

Do not worry dude. They're all f*cked up now...... Take it easy.

 

[Kenyanese]

Do not worry dude. They're all f*cked up now...... Take it easy.

Lol
I knew that but I never knew it was this bad.

I sent them an email.

As if this ain't enough I received a strike from a creative commons license video. Sent a counter notification.

I started another thread on that in the relevant section

 

[OCTA-Log]

It is just not very smart to think you will get anything close to what is estimated because YouTube revenue Is just so inconsistent in a bad way, and YouTube monetization revenue is at a bad place now as well. It is also possible nobody watched or clicked on ads, but highly unlikely.

 

[Kenyanese]

It is just not very smart to think you will get anything close to what is estimated because YouTube revenue Is just so inconsistent in a bad way, and YouTube monetization revenue is at a bad place now as well. It is also possible nobody watched or clicked on ads, but highly unlikely.

All my previous estimates have only differed from the actual earnings by no more than 2-3%. So I expected not much deviation. If the estimate can be off by over 70% then they are pretty much useless at anything

 

[OCTA-Log]

All my previous estimates have only differed from the actual earnings by no more than 2-3%. So I expected not much deviation.

The estimations have actually been that close to the actual earnings? That is really shocking considering it is random on how many people actually watch the ads all the way through, or click the clickables, unless it takes those things into factor. I would just contact youtube about the problem if its a big enough issue for you.